[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":106},["ShallowReactive",2],{"project-doubleheader-settlement":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"description":90,"draft":93,"extension":94,"meta":95,"navigation":96,"path":97,"seo":98,"sortOrder":99,"stem":100,"tagline":101,"taglineMobile":102,"thumbnails":103,"titleColor":102,"__hash__":105},"work\u002Fwork\u002Fdoubleheader-settlement.md","Orioles @ Yankees",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":89},"minimark",[9,16,35,42,48,53,59,64],[10,11],"hero-image",{"alt":12,"href":13,"src":14,"subtitle":15,"title":5},"Orioles @ Yankees settlement split between Kalshi and Polymarket US","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Ftbunz\u002Fdoubleheader-settlement-kalshi-pmus","\u002Fimages\u002Fwork\u002Fdoubleheader\u002Fthumb.png","An analysis of prediction market resolution",[17,18,19],"side-note",{},[20,21,22,26,27,34],"p",{},[23,24,25],"strong",{},"TLDR",": Kalshi and Polymarket US listed the same Orioles vs Yankees game. It became a doubleheader, and each venue settled on a different game. Both are defensible. The ",[28,29,33],"a",{"href":13,"rel":30,"target":32},[31],"nofollow","_blank","repo"," has the sources and a script to verify it.",[36,37,39],"title-block",{"subtitle":38},"One contract, two games, two answers.",[20,40,41],{},"What happened",[43,44,45],"text-block",{},[20,46,47],{},"Both venues named the game by date, time, and teams. When it was rescheduled into a September 25 doubleheader, that description pointed at two games. Kalshi settled on game 1, which the Orioles won. Polymarket US settled on game 2, which the Yankees won. Each matches a record on MLB.com. I found it because I was running a cross-venue arbitrage experiment that paired these contracts, and it took a loss on both pairs.",[49,50],"image-gallery",{":columns":51,":images":52},"1","[{\"src\":\"\u002Fimages\u002Fwork\u002Fdoubleheader\u002Fdiagram.png\",\"alt\":\"Kalshi settled on game 1, Polymarket US settled on game 2\"}]",[36,54,56],{"subtitle":55},"Even a baseball game can be hard to resolve as an event contract.",[20,57,58],{},"The point",[43,60,61],{},[20,62,63],{},"A contract is not an event; it is a model of an event. When the schedule moved, one description fit two games, and the venues made different decisions about how to handle it.",[43,65,66],{},[20,67,68,69,73,74,77,79,83,84],{},"Everything is in the repo: raw responses from both venues and MLB, the press release, the contract terms, the bot's trades, and a ",[70,71,72],"code",{},"verify.py"," that checks the core claims against the saved sources. No API keys needed.",[75,76],"br",{},[75,78],{},[28,80,82],{"href":13,"rel":81,"target":32},[31],"Repo"," | ",[28,85,88],{"href":86,"rel":87,"target":32},"https:\u002F\u002Fcimarrondata.com",[31],"Cimarron Data",{"title":90,"searchDepth":91,"depth":91,"links":92},"",2,[],false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fwork\u002Fdoubleheader-settlement",{"title":5,"description":90},3.5,"work\u002Fdoubleheader-settlement","Two for One",null,[14,104,14,104,14],"\u002Fimages\u002Fwork\u002Fdoubleheader\u002Fthumb2.png","gCNcnh9ouJNkhz580cdjPLboPzwWiSnOun-P3Wm-zUY",1792547614726]